Victorian Fire Season – Serious Warning
VICTORIA is set to endure the worst drought conditions since the 1930s as maximum summer temperatures soar, CFA chief fire officer Russell Rees has warned.
But deputy chief officer John Haynes says the CFA is ready to manage a dozen major bushfires simultaneously this summer under a “worst case scenario”.
That’s two more than Black Saturday in February when 173 people died and 2000 homes were destroyed.
In a weather presentation to federal Victorian MPs at Parliament House in Canberra, Mr Rees today said there was a 55 per cent chance of summer temperatures being hotter.
November maximum temperatures in much of southern Australia are running at eight degrees “or thereabouts” hotter than average, he added.
“I’m just stating the facts, all right,” the Black Saturday bushfires veteran said.
Without mentioning the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, in which 71 Victorians died, Mr Rees said drought conditions could end up being the worst in seven decades.
“Even if we have average rainfall for the rest of the year, we will probably end up in a climate scenario similar to 1938-39, or worse than, in terms of rainfall deficit,” Mr Rees told the MPs associated with the bushfires reconstruction effort.
“So, the picture is not pretty.”
He added the outlook was for average rainfall continuing for the next three months.
“Hotter and drier, those predictions have actually come back,” Mr Rees said.
Recent rains had not alleviated the dry conditions across the state, he said.
“Some places in Victoria, and generally overall … we are more in rainfall deficit this year than what we were last year,” Mr Rees said.
“And it’s not recognised all that much.”
The media was asked to leave the presentation when the topic turned to bushfire preparedness.
Under changes revealed to the Bushfires Royal Commission today, Mr Haynes said the CFA was preparing for days of severe and higher bushfire risk.
“We reckon we’re better organised between the agencies to allow incident areas at a state level to be able to deliver better responses,” he said.
“Our facilities have improved, now we’ve got a single line of control, and we’re heading down to an agreement for training standards in the future.”
But the bushfires inquiry has still identified several areas of CFA operations which could lead to similar failures if the state is faced with another Black Saturday.
Counsel assisting the inquiry, Rachel Doyle, SC, questioned why the CFA only planned to have 50 per cent of top level incident controllers available on a day of high bushfire risk.
“We have more than enough people, it seems the difficulty is where they are and where they should be placed,’’ Ms Doyle said.
“Yes, that’s correct,’’ Mr Haynes replied.
Mr Haynes said the decision to plan for only 50 per cent of staff being available was his own estimate with “no science behind it”.
Among other changes, at least 13 new positions have been created for Incident Management Teams, which are responsible for managing a fire on-the-ground.
A new public information officer is among those who will be appointed to every IMT this summer and will be solely responsible for issuing warnings.
Ms Doyle also argued why an 18-month timeframe was given for the development of new training standards when a comprehensive format already exists.
Mr Haynes agreed, saying “good question”, but said the CFA hoped to use the existing format to assist with the development of new standards sooner.
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