VICTORIA is set to endure the worst drought conditions since the 1930s as maximum summer temperatures soar, CFA chief fire officer Russell Rees has warned.
But deputy chief officer John Haynes says the CFA is ready to manage a dozen major bushfires simultaneously this summer under a “worst case scenario”.
That’s two more than Black Saturday in February when 173 people died and 2000 homes were destroyed.
In a weather presentation to federal Victorian MPs at Parliament House in Canberra, Mr Rees today said there was a 55 per cent chance of summer temperatures being hotter.
November maximum temperatures in much of southern Australia are running at eight degrees “or thereabouts” hotter than average, he added.
“I’m just stating the facts, all right,” the Black Saturday bushfires veteran said.
Without mentioning the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, in which 71 Victorians died, Mr Rees said drought conditions could end up being the worst in seven decades.
“Even if we have average rainfall for the rest of the year, we will probably end up in a climate scenario similar to 1938-39, or worse than, in terms of rainfall deficit,” Mr Rees told the MPs associated with the bushfires reconstruction effort.
“So, the picture is not pretty.”
He added the outlook was for average rainfall continuing for the next three months.
“Hotter and drier, those predictions have actually come back,” Mr Rees said.
Recent rains had not alleviated the dry conditions across the state, he said.
“Some places in Victoria, and generally overall … we are more in rainfall deficit this year than what we were last year,” Mr Rees said.
“And it’s not recognised all that much.”
The media was asked to leave the presentation when the topic turned to bushfire preparedness.
Under changes revealed to the Bushfires Royal Commission today, Mr Haynes said the CFA was preparing for days of severe and higher bushfire risk.
“We reckon we’re better organised between the agencies to allow incident areas at a state level to be able to deliver better responses,” he said.
“Our facilities have improved, now we’ve got a single line of control, and we’re heading down to an agreement for training standards in the future.”
But the bushfires inquiry has still identified several areas of CFA operations which could lead to similar failures if the state is faced with another Black Saturday.
Counsel assisting the inquiry, Rachel Doyle, SC, questioned why the CFA only planned to have 50 per cent of top level incident controllers available on a day of high bushfire risk.
“We have more than enough people, it seems the difficulty is where they are and where they should be placed,’’ Ms Doyle said.
“Yes, that’s correct,’’ Mr Haynes replied.
Mr Haynes said the decision to plan for only 50 per cent of staff being available was his own estimate with “no science behind it”.
Among other changes, at least 13 new positions have been created for Incident Management Teams, which are responsible for managing a fire on-the-ground.
A new public information officer is among those who will be appointed to every IMT this summer and will be solely responsible for issuing warnings.
Ms Doyle also argued why an 18-month timeframe was given for the development of new training standards when a comprehensive format already exists.
Mr Haynes agreed, saying “good question”, but said the CFA hoped to use the existing format to assist with the development of new standards sooner.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/drought-conditions-worst-since-1930s-warns-cfa-chief-fire-officer-russell-rees/story-e6frf7jo-1225804200041
New figures show that nearly three quarters of New South Wales is now in drought.
About 73.6 per cent of the state is now affected – that is up nearly six percentage points from last month.
The Primary Industries Minister Tony Kelly says not even coastal areas have escaped.
He says many are either drought declared or marginal.
“Particularly on the north coast,” he said.
“The fact that they have had some floods there and significant rain is a very temporary thing.
“It hasn’t solved the problem in fact that north coast area, which you would normally think is out of drought, and normally is out of drought is now in the drought declared area.”
Only 1.9 per cent of the state is considered to be satisfactory.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/23/2750692.htm?site=westernplains
El Nino intensifies Latin America drought
MONTEVIDEO — From a devastating food crisis in Guatemala to water cuts in Venezuela, El Nino has compounded drought damage across Latin America this year.
The occasional seasonal warming of central and eastern Pacific waters upsets normal weather patterns across the globe and occurs on average every two to five years.
Typically lasting around 12 months, El Nino reappeared once again in June.
Guatemalan authorities blamed it for the nation’s worst drought in 30 years, which has left almost 500 people dead from hunger since the start of the year.
Around 36,000 hectares (90,000 acres) of corn and bean crops were lost, officials said.
“El Nino prolonged the period of drought, which provoked a reduction… in agricultural production, affecting around 2.5 million people,” said Elisabeth Byrsla, spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
Further south, Ecuador saw its worst drought in 40 years, officials said.
The government declared a 60-day state of emergency in the hydro-electric sector after water levels sunk in power station reservoirs.
Ice cream sellers in the capital Quito were among those hit as their produce melted during daily five-hour power cuts linked to an energy crisis set off by the drought.
To the east, Venezuela’s water supplies dropped 25 percent below the population’s needs, forcing restrictions — including cuts of 48 hours per week — until May, when the rainy season is forecast to return.
President Hugo Chavez asked Venezuelans to take three-minute showers and carry a torch, instead of switching on a light, during nighttime visits to the bathroom.
The drought has affected between 70 and 80 percent of key crops, including maize and rice in the heart of Venezuela’s cereal production, according to Vicente Figuera, head of the Guarico Association of Cereal Producers and Cattle Breeders.
In Bolivia, at least 11,000 head of cattle died in recent weeks after some 20,000 hectares of crops, including maize and potatoes, were destroyed in the south, authorities said.
Farmers in Bolivia complained of going eight months without rain.
Water levels in Titicaca, the world’s highest navigable lake, fell by 4.5 meters (five yards), according to Hernan Tuco, deputy civil defense minister.
Authorities dispatched massive water trucks in the worst hit provinces of the Andean nation.
Elsewhere, some 6,000 families were affected by the drought in the Chaco region of Paraguay, particularly indigenous populations, authorities said.
In neighboring Argentina, fires lasting several weeks burned through some 70,000 hectares of land during the worst drought in 50 years, according to officials in the central and northern Cordoba and Catamarca regions.
El Nino also contributed to an especially calm Atlantic hurricane season — a welcome respite for Caribbean and southeastern US residents still recovering from a 2008 pounding.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hqizmmbJyyZeh30urxp5lWMS8FyQ?index=0
